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Post by Kerching on May 26, 2013 22:48:19 GMT 1
OH MY GOD BOYS I LEFT A £2 'PERMED'BET ON THE BELOW,THE BET COST ME £128.I WAS A 'NECK' AND A 'HEAD; AWAY FROM SCOOPING £11,475....aaaaah SO UNLUCKY aaaaahhhhh IT READ PERM 2X2X2X2X2X2=64 BETS X £2 WIN ACCA Hi lads ive put together a few races with 2 selections in each to be used in perms or dutch bets.nowt to go mad about to be honest but thought i'd pos 4ya to browse  Muharrer 7/2 or Forget me not lane 9/2 4.55 Carlisle 2ND AND 4TH  BEATEN BY A NECK Maputo 6/4 or Grandorio 9/2 3.25 Redcar 1ST AND NON RUNNER ;D March 3/1 or Smart spender 3/1 4.25 Windsor 1ST AND 3RD ;D Aussie Reigns 9/1 or Freeport 15/2 5.00 Windsor 1ST and 1ST 'DEAD HEAT ;D Eussie Mussie 9/2 or Danat al Atheer 6/4 3.50 Carlisle 2ND BEATEN BY A HEAD Lucky Henry 5/1 or Come on blue chip 3/1 5.30 Windsor 1ST ;D the very best of luck boys and have a great bank holiday 
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Post by papajohn on May 26, 2013 23:04:00 GMT 1
Nice1 Kerching, have you any thoughts on the 2:25 Leis race Equity Risk?
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Post by Kerching on May 26, 2013 23:12:01 GMT 1
i'll ava look nowfor ya m8t
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Post by papajohn on May 26, 2013 23:14:26 GMT 1
Also I'm thinking about backing Grandorio in the 3:25 Redcar.
He won a class 2 race last year and now he is back in class 4 company the only worry is that his trip is 1 mile but he is upped 2 extra furlongs tomorrow, if you have time can you have a look over that race and share you'r thoughts on it?
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Post by Kerching on May 26, 2013 23:20:38 GMT 1
Its a tough tough race the 2.25 Leicester.The trainer has his fair share of winners to be fair but he's going up against Johnson,Fahey,Charlton,Dunlop,Fanshawe.To be honest mate its hard to assess the transition from all weather to turf.Hes obviously got a chance to win after a 1st and a 2nd but to be honest mate its dodgy.Dont let me put ya off it though mate its just not a race for me.He's an unknown qauntity on turf but theres some proven turf horses with decent form from strong stables against him,Theres 5 or 6 who could win'your being 1 of them m8t.
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Post by papajohn on May 26, 2013 23:26:40 GMT 1
I may also have a couple picked out for Cartmel as well, maybe a few ew bets, in the 3:05 I like
Iona Days and in the 5:15 I like Humbie and lastly in the 4:45 I like Kingdom Of Munster.
Can you check those races as well and shed you'r opinion on them for me.
Cheers mate.
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Post by Kerching on May 26, 2013 23:30:19 GMT 1
I fancy the look of Grandorio mate,ive put in 1 of my perms.Hes got some strong form and i dont think the distance should be a problem cos he can do a mile in the soft.Im just a bit worried that he might enjoy a bit of an easier surface but theres rain forcast tommorrow.The favourite is entered in a group 3 next month and won by 4 lengths last time.So hes obviously well thought of.Ive just watched his last race and he didnt beat much.He's also been nibbled at from 13/8 to 6/4.Ive noticed if the early prices on bet 365 are getting hit the night before they normally run well.
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Post by papajohn on May 26, 2013 23:30:27 GMT 1
Well that answers that then, Ill steer wide of that race.
Thanks for the input mate.
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Post by Kerching on May 26, 2013 23:40:32 GMT 1
3.05 Phew m8t your pickin some toughies,There more dangers in this race than at the bbc in the 70's Lol. IONA DAYS hasnt run on firm going for about 18 months and he's running against rivals today who have raced respectfully in 1 or 2 grades higher than him.Hes a good price at 12's but again dont let me put you off but this type of race isnt for me dude.Too many ifs and buts for my liking
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Post by Kerching on May 26, 2013 23:52:33 GMT 1
Humbie 5.15 Now he's lightly raced which i like and good form aswell.the jockey is a bit of a worry as hes an apprentice but the 7ib claim wont hurt.Large field but he's one of the principals at 5/1.I'd do him each way though mate cos its again a tough race
Kingdom of munster its not a strong race and most of the principals have all run around the dame level.theres a couple of class 4's in there and kindoms a class 5er.Hes a bit in and out too which is a concern but again dude its an open race with 4 or 5 with a shout
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Post by papajohn on May 27, 2013 0:11:16 GMT 1
Thanks mate I really like you'r views, because of your views I'm now looking back over these races and I'm starting to see exactly what you are talking about. I think that I'm just going to do the one race tomorrow the Grandorio race. I might have 2 bets in the race just to save myself if one fails, The Mark Johnston horse. Alto it's going to be hard to sit the whole day in front of the computer with just the one bet on, I need to learn to control my betting plan instead of backing blind just because I see a horse that's been backed out of it on screen. It's hard not to.
Do you mind me asking about your horse picking skills, do you buy a newspaper every day and keep them all and then write down all the winning places as in the names of the jockeys and trainers and then the stall numbers
and use that?
Also in big fields when a horse runs into a place from a bad draw, say the high numbers are the best draws and say that the winning draws are 17, 16 and 2. Do you think that the horse that ran out of the 2 stall would be a good next time choice?
Hope that makes sense mate.
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Post by Kerching on May 27, 2013 1:18:48 GMT 1
Sorry i avnt posted back mate the mrs was watchin corrie and i got side tracked lol.
Over the last couple of years ive learnt to swerve totally any race OVER 9 horses.1 becuse it takes too long to go through the form and 2 the chances of picking the winners diminishes.
The bookies bookies love these races.The prices are enticing but for every winner they payout on theres a hundred they dont.
i think the trick is to back in the races they dont want you to back in.Meaning only back a horse when there is only 1 or 2 others who can win.
You also have to be disciplined and stick to your researched horses.Ive been guilty of going race for race and lost 9 times outa 10.its hard not to do it because we like the buzz but what do you like 'more'winning or loosing?
On the other site people were saying i only backed 'odds ons'i'll back anything depending on its form,usually the form of a horse dictates the price but i'd rather have a shorty WIN than a 5,6,7/1 or bigger get beat.The greatest tool i use is BET365's form guides there amazing and without them i'd pack in.
the perm i did today had a 4/6,1/3 or5/2 and a 4/5 they all had an outstanding chance to win and it paid 10/1.
that was easier than finding a 10/1 winner.I always look at my selections and say to my self realistically can these 'win' if my honest answer is no or maybe then i rethink my strategy
hope this helps ya dude and the very best of luck for tommorrow
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Post by papajohn on May 27, 2013 1:39:34 GMT 1
Thanks mate, I hate big fields as well. Great read again there. I might have a look at Bet365 website and see how it performs in finding horses and going back through the form. I use GGs form and I find it good because you can go right back and click any trainer/horse or jockey and it will show you what you want to know. The only prob that I have with it is for instance if I'm looking back at a horses form say from 2 years ago when I click on a race and I come back out to scroll down further it doesn't stay where I had it it scrolls right back up the page and I have to scroll all the way down there again, but apart from that I like the layout of the race cards.
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Post by Kerching on May 27, 2013 1:49:45 GMT 1
ANOTHER tip ive learnt is WHY only have 1 horse in a race.If you work out the prices and if EITHER win you get a profit...ITS JOB DONE.If your like me and choose 1 over another its 'sods law' you will pick the wrong one.
A good bet ive been doing lately is finding a race where you have a STRONG favourite at EVENS 'ish' and then find a viable alternative to it in the same race at 9/4,5/2, 11/4 or whatever the price and then back both.IF the favourite wins you return your stake and NO HARM DONE but your alternative wins you will more than likely DOUBLE Your stake.
I did a permed double the other week on the other site.i had 2 selections in 2 races.The bets cost me 4x's my stake.the odds were 7/4 or 14/1 and 9/4 or 11/2.If the 2 favourites win i was making a small profit but if at least 1 of my alternatives win i was getting a nice reurn.
it turned out the 14/1 shot got backed into 9/2 and beat my favourite and the other race the favourite won but drifted to 5/2.
i ended up with a 5/2 and a 14/1 double.
were ever you can try to 'PROTECT YOUR STAKE'Try to bet in such a way that IF you dont win CAN you bet in such a way to return your stake to fight another day.
This protects against loses and with capital you ALWAYS have a chance to to win.Without any money they have taken it and won and you cant retaliate.
Theres a true saying called 'EDGING YOUR BETS' Which i always think i my best horse doesnt win who will beat it.If i cant find 1 then job done but if i can i'll edge my bet and back both.
Some people will say'say both loose'you have lost twice,yes true but thats my gamble and 'nothing'in racing is a cert.But i like to stack the odds in MY FAVOUR
hope this helps m8t
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Post by papajohn on May 27, 2013 2:06:43 GMT 1
Yes that really helps as well mate. You'r words go a long way. Thanks mate.
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BEATEN BY A NECK
