Post by Kerching on May 27, 2013 2:35:08 GMT 1
Im on a roll now lol.
say you have 10 fancies in a day, after reading the form ideally all will win but probabilty says even on a good day you will be lucky to get 5 outa 10.
Your job is then to whittle it down through a process of illimination to discard the ones who havnt got as good a chance as the others.
Im learning in this department because know matter how good you are nobody can pick a winner in every race..its impossible.
i firstly take out any with apprentice jockeys 'unless' the apprentice is in the top 3 riders i'e hart or murphy ect. Then i look at the full time jockey and think is he good enough.becuase i honestly belive some people in whatever walk of life have an affinity with animals may it be dogs, horses or any other animal.
i always think what makes the horse run for these jockeys and maybe not others.is it ALL good horsemanship or does the animal react to there behaviour.I dont know but i do think theres something else.
i then look at the trainers.The bigger trainers MUST have a better chance than a lesser known one due to there proficency training horses to group level ect.
i then look at how many horses are in each race.its often easier to determine a winner from a small field rather than a larger one.If for example you have a 5 horse field even if you didnt have the benefit of reading the form ect you still have a 20%chance of picking the winner with 1 selection'EVEN'if you guessed,rather than a 10% chance in a 10 runner contest.Straight away probability is on your side.
i then reavaluate the form, weighing one against another to determine which to discard.
Even with doing all this you still cant gaurantee a horse to win BUT you do give yourself a better chance to win
I think the process of illimination is the hardest part. Im confident that if ive got 10 horses and ive done all my homework i can get at least 5 on a good day. the hard part is choosing the 'right'ones to bet on.Thats were luck and fate comes into play.
well m8ty i hope this will help but everyone finds there own way which works for them.Just thought i'd tell you my though process when im gambling.
best of luck for tomorrow dude and i hope ya smash em
say you have 10 fancies in a day, after reading the form ideally all will win but probabilty says even on a good day you will be lucky to get 5 outa 10.
Your job is then to whittle it down through a process of illimination to discard the ones who havnt got as good a chance as the others.
Im learning in this department because know matter how good you are nobody can pick a winner in every race..its impossible.
i firstly take out any with apprentice jockeys 'unless' the apprentice is in the top 3 riders i'e hart or murphy ect. Then i look at the full time jockey and think is he good enough.becuase i honestly belive some people in whatever walk of life have an affinity with animals may it be dogs, horses or any other animal.
i always think what makes the horse run for these jockeys and maybe not others.is it ALL good horsemanship or does the animal react to there behaviour.I dont know but i do think theres something else.
i then look at the trainers.The bigger trainers MUST have a better chance than a lesser known one due to there proficency training horses to group level ect.
i then look at how many horses are in each race.its often easier to determine a winner from a small field rather than a larger one.If for example you have a 5 horse field even if you didnt have the benefit of reading the form ect you still have a 20%chance of picking the winner with 1 selection'EVEN'if you guessed,rather than a 10% chance in a 10 runner contest.Straight away probability is on your side.
i then reavaluate the form, weighing one against another to determine which to discard.
Even with doing all this you still cant gaurantee a horse to win BUT you do give yourself a better chance to win
I think the process of illimination is the hardest part. Im confident that if ive got 10 horses and ive done all my homework i can get at least 5 on a good day. the hard part is choosing the 'right'ones to bet on.Thats were luck and fate comes into play.
well m8ty i hope this will help but everyone finds there own way which works for them.Just thought i'd tell you my though process when im gambling.
best of luck for tomorrow dude and i hope ya smash em
